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The Chinese Farmer Parable: Maybe So Maybe Not

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The Chinese Farmer Parable is a well known story first told by British writer and philosopher Alan Watts in a 1960 lecture. Watts describes this as an old Zen parable but references to this effect do not appear to exist. As such, it is viewed as an original story by Alan Watts, although it is likely, as Alan Watts claimed, influenced by similar parables from Zen traditions. The story is as follows.
Once upon a time there was a Chinese farmer who lost a horse. And all the neighbors came around that evening and said "That's too bad."

And he said "Maybe."

The next day the horse came back and brought seven wild horses with it. And all the neighbors came around and said "Why, that's great, isn't it?"

And he said "Maybe."

The next day his son was attempting to tame one of these horses and was riding it and was thrown and broke his leg. And all the neighbors came around in the evening and said "Well, that's too bad, isn't it."

And the farmer said "Maybe."

The next day the conscription officers came around looking for people for the army and they rejected his son because he had a broken leg. And all the neighbors came around in the evening and said "Isn't that wonderful?"

And he said "Maybe."

~ Alan Watts, Lecture On Zen, 1960
The Chinese Farmer Parable is widely cited as an example of the illusive nature of progress whereby steps forward may end up being negative in the long term. Likewise, seeming negative events may end up bringing positive results such as creative destruction. The parable is also cited as a principle of stoicism whereby it is viewed as a virtue not to despair at apparent misfortune or delight in apparent good luck.
Overview: Maybe So Maybe Not
Type
Definition
A Zen story from the 1960s that illustrates the illusive nature of progress and the virtue of delaying judgement.
Attributed To
Alan Watts, possibly loosely based on similar Zen parables
Related Concepts
Next: Outrun the Bear

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References

Watts, Alan. Eastern wisdom, modern life: Collected talks: 1960-1969. New World Library, 2011.

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