A-Z Popular Blog Top Search »
Business Strategy
 
Related Guides
Business
Complexity
Goals
Objectives
Strategic Planning
Benchmarking
Budget Planning
Business Models
top   »  strategy   »  strategic planning   »  reference class forecasting

What is Reference Class Forecasting?

 , updated on
Reference class forecasting is a high level estimation technique that compares a strategy to past projects and their outcomes. It is designed to eliminate factors such as optimism bias that commonly result in poor quality estimates at the strategic planning stage.
The process of reference class forecasting begins by identifying a class of projects that are similar to your strategy. These are then modeled as a probability distribution according to a factor such as cost or risk. This distribution is then used as an approximation of the probable cost, risk or benefits of your strategy.
Overview: Reference Class Forecasting
Type
Strategic Planning
Definition
Developing a rough estimate for a strategy by looking at the probability distribution of historical projects that are similar to the strategy.
Example
A business case for a new service estimates a time to market of 2 months. However, the probability distribution of time to market for similar projects ranges from 4 to 8 months. As a result, 6 months might be a more accurate estimate.
Related Concepts
Project Estimates

Strategic Planning

This is the complete list of articles we have written about strategic planning.
Base Case
Benchmarking
Budget Planning
Business Models
Business Planning
Capability Analysis
Change Drivers
Competition
Competitive Factors
Economic Moat
Estimates
External Factors
Forecasting
Goal Setting
Goals
Implementation
Market Analysis
Organizational Goals
Organizational Planning
Organizational Strategy
Overplanning
PESTEL Analysis
Prioritization
Process
Scenario Planning
Strategic Analysis
Strategic Control
Strategic Direction
Strategic Drivers
Strategic Outcomes
Strategic Priorities
Strategic Vision
Strategy Development
Strategy Monitoring
Technology Factors
More ...
If you enjoyed this page, please consider bookmarking Simplicable.
 
Cite »

Strategic Planning

A list of techniques for developing and implementing a strategy.

Macro Environment

A list of macro environment components.

Business Plan vs Business Case

The difference between business plan and business case explained.

Capability Analysis

Analysis of organization abilities.

Strategy vs Plan

The difference between a strategy and a plan.

Estimates

The common types of estimates.

Budget Planning

A definition of budget planning with examples.

Market Intelligence

A definition of market intelligence with examples.

Industry Change

An overview of industry change with examples.

Types Of Strategy

The basic types of strategy.

Project Risk

A list of common project risks.

Project Management Basics

A list of basic project management techniques.

Workaround

A definition of workaround with examples.

Project Branding

A list of project branding techniques.

Stakeholder Management

An overview of project stakeholder management with examples.

Action Plan

A definition of action plan with examples.

Cost Overrun

The primary types of cost overrun.

Document Control

The definition of document control with examples.

Project Oversight

A guide to project oversight.

Design-Driven Development

A definition of design driven development with examples.

Trending

The most popular articles on Simplicable in the past day.

New Articles

Recent posts or updates on Simplicable.
Site Map
Life
Management
Marketing
Materials
Motivation
Nature
Organizational Culture
Philosophy
Primary Stakeholder
Problem Solving
Productivity
Quality
Risk
Sales
Science
Search
Small Business
Society
Storytelling
Strategy
Sustainability
Talent
Technology
Thinking
More ...
© 2010-2023 Simplicable. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction of materials found on this site, in any form, without explicit permission is prohibited.

View credits & copyrights or citation information for this page.

Home About     Privacy Policy     Cookies Terms of Use     Contact Us Search


Cookies help us deliver our services. You have choices regarding these cookies. Please visit our privacy policy, cookie policy and consent tool to learn more.


Copyright 2002-2024 Simplicable. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, redistributed or translated. Report violations here.