Thinking

# 7 Examples of an Educated Guess

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An educated guess is conjecture based on knowledge, information and experience. This can be contrasted with a guess that is purely random. In most cases, an educated guess will beat a random guess. The following are illustrative examples of an educated guess.

## Expert Opinion

The informed opinion of an individual with applicable professional or domain knowledge. For example, a diagnosis of a disease by a doctor based on test results and symptoms that may involve some degree of uncertainty.

## Intuition

Intuition is any mental process that isn't consciously understood by the thinker. This is often attributed to unconscious cognition. For example, a poker player may strongly feel that another player is bluffing based on decades of experience.

## Hypothesis

A hypothesis is a proposed theory that is later tested with experimentation. For example, a scientist who develops a theory that intestinal microbiome plays a role in a particular disease based on their understanding of processes in the body. This is adopted as a hypothesis with the full recognition that it's an educated guess that must be tested with rigorous research before it can progress towards being considered true.

## Inductive Reasoning

Inductive reasoning is the bottom-up process of developing a hypothesis from evidence. This allows for best guesses where there is ambiguity and grey areas. For example, a marketing team that interviews customers to develop a theory that an ice cream product isn't selling well because it's perceived as overpriced as compared to new products on the market.

## Deductive Reasoning

Deductive reasoning is the process of beginning with a theory and working to find evidence. For example, a computer technician who begins by rebooting a device to see if this process addresses a problem.

## Analogical Reasoning

Analogical reasoning is the process of using comparisons to develop an estimate, prediction or hypothesis. For example, a software developer who is asked to estimate some work who thinks about how long similar work took.

## Mathematics

An educated guess can be based on math such as probabilities. For example, a poker player who knows there is only a very low probability that anyone can beat their hand such that they feel free to raise their bet.
 Overview: Educated Guess Type Definition Conjecture based on knowledge, information and experience. Related Concepts

## Thinking

This is the complete list of articles we have written about thinking.
Abductive Reasoning
Abstract Thinking
Abstraction
Aesthetics
Analogy
Analysis Paralysis
Analytical Thinking
Anomie
Argument
Argument From Silence
Arrow Of Time
Assertions
Automaticity
Backward Induction
Base Rate Fallacy
Benefit Of Doubt
Big Picture
Brainstorming
Call To Action
Catch 22
Causality
Choice Architecture
Circular Reasoning
Cognition
Cognitive Abilities
Cognitive Biases
Cold Logic
Collective Intelligence
Complexity Bias
Concept
Consciousness
Constructive Criticism
Convergent Thinking
Counterfactual Thinking
Creative Tension
Creeping Normality
Critical Thinking
Culture
Curse Of Knowledge
Decision Fatigue
Decision Framing
Decision Making
Defensive Pessimism
Design Thinking
Divergent Thinking
Educated Guess
Emotional Intelligence
Epic Meaning
Essential Complexity
Excluded Middle
Failure Of Imagination
Fallacies
Fallacy Fallacy
False Analogy
False Balance
False Dichotomy
False Equivalence
First Principles
Formal Logic
Four Causes
Fuzzy Logic
Gambler's Fallacy
Generalization
Golden Hammer
Good Judgement
Grey Area
Groupthink
Heuristics
Hindsight Bias
Hope
Idealism
Ideas
If-By-Whiskey
Illogical Success
Imagination
Independent Thinking
Inductive Reasoning
Inference
Influencing
Informal Logic
Information
Introspection
Intuition
Inventive Step
Learning
Lifestyle
Logic
Logical Argument
Logical Thinking
Ludic Fallacy
Magical Thinking
Meaning
Mental Experiences
Mental State
Mindset
Misuse of Statistics
Motivated Reasoning
Natural Language
Nirvana Fallacy
Norms
Not Even Wrong
Objective Reason
Objectivity
Opinion
Overthinking
Perception
Personal Values
Perspective
Positive Thinking
Practical Thinking
Pragmatism
Premise
Problem Solving
Proof By Example
Propositional Logic
Prosecutor's Fallacy
Rational Thought
Realism
Reality
Reason
Reasoning
Red Herring
Reflective Thinking
Reification
Relativism
Salience
Scarcity Mindset
Scientism
Selective Attention
Serendipity
Situational Awareness
Sour Grapes
State Of Mind
Storytelling
Subjectivity
Systems Thinking
Thinking
Thought Experiment
Unknown Unknowns
Visual Thinking
Want To Believe
Win-Win Thinking
Wishful Thinking
Worldview

## Thinking

An overview of thinking with examples.

## Subjectivity

The definition of subjectivity with examples.

## View From Nowhere

The definition of a view from nowhere with examples.

## Worldview

The definition of worldview with examples.

## Objective Reason

The definition of objective reason with examples.

## Reason

The definition of reason with examples.

## Selective Attention

The definition of selective attention with examples.

## List Of Emotions

A list of common emotions.

## Win-Win Thinking

The definition of win-win thinking with examples.

## Rational Thought

The difference between rational thought and logic.

## Critical Thinking Skills

A list of common critical thinking skills.

## Ways Of Thinking

A list of thinking approaches and mindsets.

## Practical Thinking

The definition of practical thinking with examples.

## Good Judgement

Complete examples of different types of good judgement.

## Cognition

The common types of cognition with examples.

## Cognitive Skills

A list of the basic types of cognitive skill.

## Independent Thinking

The definition of independent thinking with examples.
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