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An educated guess is conjecture based on knowledge, information and experience. This can be contrasted with a guess that is purely random. In most cases, an educated guess will beat a random guess. The following are illustrative examples of an educated guess.Expert OpinionThe informed opinion of an individual with applicable professional or domain knowledge. For example, a diagnosis of a disease by a doctor based on test results and symptoms that may involve some degree of uncertainty.
IntuitionIntuition is any mental process that isn't consciously understood by the thinker. This is often attributed to unconscious cognition. For example, a poker player may strongly feel that another player is bluffing based on decades of experience.HypothesisA hypothesis is a proposed theory that is later tested with experimentation. For example, a scientist who develops a theory that intestinal microbiome plays a role in a particular disease based on their understanding of processes in the body. This is adopted as a hypothesis with the full recognition that it's an educated guess that must be tested with rigorous research before it can progress towards being considered true.
Inductive ReasoningInductive reasoning is the bottom-up process of developing a hypothesis from evidence. This allows for best guesses where there is ambiguity and grey areas. For example, a marketing team that interviews customers to develop a theory that an ice cream product isn't selling well because it's perceived as overpriced as compared to new products on the market.
Deductive ReasoningDeductive reasoning is the process of beginning with a theory and working to find evidence. For example, a computer technician who begins by rebooting a device to see if this process addresses a problem.Analogical ReasoningAnalogical reasoning is the process of using comparisons to develop an estimate, prediction or hypothesis. For example, a software developer who is asked to estimate some work who thinks about how long similar work took.
MathematicsAn educated guess can be based on math such as probabilities. For example, a poker player who knows there is only a very low probability that anyone can beat their hand such that they feel free to raise their bet.|
| Type | | | Definition | Conjecture based on knowledge, information and experience. | | Related Concepts | |
Thinking
This is the complete list of articles we have written about thinking.
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An overview of thinking with examples.
The definition of subjectivity with examples.
The definition of a view from nowhere with examples.
The definition of worldview with examples.
The definition of objective reason with examples.
The definition of reason with examples.
The definition of selective attention with examples.
A list of common emotions.
The definition of win-win thinking with examples.
Rational thought is often somewhat logical but includes factors such as emotion, imagination, culture, language and social conventions.
A list of common critical thinking skills.
A list of thinking approaches and mindsets.
The definition of practical thinking with examples.
Complete examples of different types of good judgement.
The common types of cognition with examples.
A list of the basic types of cognitive skill.
The definition of independent thinking with examples.
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