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What is the Gambler's Fallacy?

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Gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that a random occurrence becomes less likely after it has just occurred. For example, if you flip a coin and tails appears three times in a row it is common to believe that heads is becoming more likely, when in fact the odds remain fixed. In some cases, the fallacy is reversed and a person believes that tails becomes more likely after a few in a row.
Overview: Gambler's Fallacy
Type
Fallacy
Definition
The belief that an independent random event is influenced by the past.
Related Concepts
Base Rate Fallacy
Optimism Bias
Fallacies

Cognitive Biases

This is the complete list of articles we have written about cognitive biases.
Ambiguity Effect
Anchoring
Backfire Effect
Base Rate
Biased
Biases
Circular Reasoning
Cognitive Bias
Cognitive Dissonance
Complexity Bias
Crab Mentality
Creeping Normality
Curse Of Knowledge
Decoy Effect
Ethnocentrism
Exposure Effect
False Analogy
False Hope
Fear Of Youth
Gambler's Fallacy
Golden Hammer
Halo Effect
Hindsight Bias
Negativity Bias
Optimism Bias
Peak-End Rule
Positive Bias
Sour Grapes
Survivorship Bias
Us vs Them
Victim Mentality
Wishful Thinking
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