|Overview: Gambler's Fallacy|
|Definition||The belief that an independent random event is influenced by the past.|
|Related Concepts||Base Rate FallacyOptimism BiasFallacies|
What is the Gambler's Fallacy?
John Spacey, updated on March 05, 2023
Gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that a random occurrence becomes less likely after it has just occurred. For example, if you flip a coin and tails appears three times in a row it is common to believe that heads is becoming more likely, when in fact the odds remain fixed. In some cases, the fallacy is reversed and a person believes that tails becomes more likely after a few in a row.
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