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Uncertainty is imperfect information. It is a basic and persistent aspect of decision making, strategy and planning that comes in several distinct varieties:AmbiguityInformation that is vague or open to interpretation.
Information that you know is missing. For example, a foreign tourist in Seoul who is lost but can't read a street sign posted in Korean.Things that are beyond your information to the extent that you don't know they exist. For example, a new investor who doesn't know that short selling exists.Future EventsGenerally speaking, the future is uncertain. Future outcomes can be estimated with probabilities and predictions but typically remain unknown until they occur. Immediate events involving simple systems may be predicted very reliably. Complex systems such as an economy or events in the distance future involve greater uncertainty.
Risk
This is the complete list of articles we have written about risk.
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Common examples of grey areas.
An extensive list of business strategies.
A reasonably comprehensive guide to strategy.
The difference between a baseline and a benchmark.
A definition of strategy vs tactics with two examples.
A list of common competitive advantages.
A list of macro environment components.
The difference between competitive advantage and distinctive capability.
An overview of a common business strategy.
A definition of restructuring with examples.
A list of decision making techniques.
The observation that groups may make collective decisions that are viewed as wrong or irrational by each individual member of the group.
A complete guide to the decision making process.
Rational thought is often somewhat logical but includes factors such as emotion, imagination, culture, language and social conventions.
A definition of information costs with examples.
A definition of reverse brainstorming with examples.
The definition of decision fatigue with examples.
Taking a position that you do not necessarily agree with for the purposes of argument.
The definition of paradox of choice with examples.
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