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50 Steps in a Decision Making Process

 , updated on December 24, 2017
A decision making process is a set of steps that can be used to make decisions. This usually isn't a rigid business process of sequential steps. More often, it is a toolkit of steps that is used in a flexible manner. A decision making process typically begins by framing your decision followed by identifying options, analyzing risk, developing decision criteria, filtering options and making the decision. The following are common steps that can be included in a decision making process.

Options

Generate a list of options.

Problem Space

Define the decision in a concise statement or question. This is a delicate step as how you define the decision greatly influences the output of a decision making process. As such, if you're not satisfied with your progress in the middle of decision making, challenge the decision statement itself.

Preserving Ambiguity

Preserving ambiguity is the practice of avoiding assumptions and constraints early in the decision making process. This gives creativity a chance to flourish.

Brainstorming

The process of allowing ideas to flow out without validation.

Reverse Brainstorming

Brainstorming based on a negative question such as "what is the worst decision we could make?" This can be done to stimulate a creative mood or to explore a solution space.

Thought Experiment

Modeling complex problems with an analogy.

Working Hypothesis

Start making assumptions on a temporary basis in order to explore the solution space. For example, "What if we ...?"

Divergent Thinking

The process of thinking broadly and creatively as opposed to trying to find the "correct" answer.

Creative Intuition

Avoiding overthinking and listening to your intuition.

Incubation

Allowing time to pass while you are working on a decision. The mind appears to work on problems while you are resting or sleeping. For example, you may come up with a good idea after a nap or walk.

Think Aloud

Voicing your thought processes in the context of a meeting. As with brainstorming, this allows ideas to flow out.

Risk

Assessing risks associated with options.

Risk Identification

List things that could go wrong with each option and estimate their probability and impact.

Premortem

Imagine that a proposed strategy has failed and list the reasons why.

Cone of Uncertainty

At the onset of a strategy, there may be a great deal of uncertainty that declines with time as you make progress. Decisions can be designed to take small steps that reduce uncertainty. For example, a student considering the cost and commitment of a university education could make a decision to start the first semester to at least give it a try.

Known Unknowns

Risks occur because uncertainty exists in all future endeavor. As such, listing out uncertainties is a good starting point for risk analysis.

Unknown Unknowns

Things that you don't even know that you don't know. For example, if you know nothing about sailing it is difficult to identify the risks of sailing across an ocean. Unknown unknowns require information that can be difficult to obtain. As such, they should be avoided where possible. For example, an option to take certification training for sailing caries less unknown risks than sailing across an ocean.

Unintended Consequences

Designing options to avoid unintended consequences. This generally involves designing options based on known approaches for which consequences are well understood. For example, solving an environmental problem by designing a new chemical to put into the ocean might have unintended consequences as you're playing with ecosystems that are too complex for anyone to fully understand.

Risk Exposure

Calculating the risk exposure for decision options.

Risk Triggers

Identifying the conditions that cause a risk to occur.

Risk Tolerance

Thinking through your risk tolerance related to the decision. For example, are you willing to take losses or are you looking for the safest route?

Risk Treatment

Developing ways to avoid, mitigate, transfer or reduce risk.

Criteria

Criteria are principles, guidelines or rules that you use to make a decision.

Goals

Criteria are typically based on your goals. For example, a student considering a career choice might have criteria such as "will this make me happy?" and "will this pay my bills?"

Objectives

Objectives are meaningful steps towards a goal. If the goal of a business is to achieve revenue an objective might be launching a product. Criteria are often based on objectives. For example, "can this be launched by September?"

Principles

Principles are often very useful in simplifying decisions. For example, an individual who adopts the principle that they will not work for an organization that harms the environment.

Maximax Criterion

Choosing the option that maximizes your potential gain without considering risk.

Minimax Criterion

Minimizing the risk of a worst-case scenario. For example, an investor who establishes the criteria that they don't want to lose money on an investment.

Last Responsible Moment

The criteria that you avoid doing things or committing to things too early. For example, a startup that wants to avoid any capital investments unless they are absolutely required to complete work this month.

Fail Well

The principle that a decision not have any tragic consequences if it fails.

Sure Thing Principle

The principle that decisions don't have to consider any risks that wouldn't impact your decision anyway. For example, a student who is considering switching from arts to engineering decides they don't care about the risk that they might struggle to pass the required math courses. This is a means of narrowing a decision to what really matters to you.

Strategic Dominance

Strategic dominance is a choice that is your best option no matter what the competition might do. This is another type of simplification where you can often drop guesses about what your competition is going to do if it doesn't really matter to your choice. For example, a hockey team that is behind by one goal decides to pull their goalie for an offensive player in the last minute might decide this is their only option whatever the strengths of the other team.

Sanity Check

Back to basics criteria such as "does this plan have any chance of actually working?"

Filtering

Decision making is an optimistic process of generating as many options as possible followed by a pessimistic process of dropping as many options as possible.

Idea Screening

A quick process of dropping options that have obvious flaws such as being too risky or infeasible.

Decision Modelling

Developing formal models for choices such as risk/reward profiles for stocks.

Pareto Analysis

Pareto analysis is based on the idea that often 20% of the work you do brings 80% of your results. It might be described as a filter that removes options that involve too much work for too little reward.

Prioritization

Prioritizing your decision criteria such as goals. For example, ranking the two criteria "I want to avoid stress" and "I want a promotion" can help to filter options.

Constraints

Imposing constraints to filter options. For example, a job hunter who decides they don't want to relocate.

Opportunity Cost

Consider the opportunity costs of options.

Feasibility

Develop experiments that validate the feasibility of options.

Proof Of Concept

Develop tests that validate concepts related to options. For example, a poster that depicts an idea for a product can be used to validate the idea with stakeholders.

Prototype

When you are left with a handful of strong options it can be useful to start to test them in lightweight prototypes. For example, an architect that builds paper prototypes of two design options.

A/B Testing

The process of testing two options against each other in the real world to gather data.

Decision Making

The process of making a decision from the small list of options that survived your filters.

First Principles

Test options against things that you absolutely know to be true. For example, a design director who immediately rejects any options that aren't visually balanced.

Trade-offs

List out the trade-offs for options.

Argument

Social processes such as a good argument can improve the quality of your decisions.

Consensus

Generally speaking, consensus results in poor quality decisions because consensus is a process of social compromise as opposed to rational thought. However, consensus is often required due to political realities and is a common way to make decisions.

Systems Thinking

An approach to thinking that attempts to consider all the complexities of a situation.

Contemplation

Intensive consideration by an individual who allows natural thought processes to flow.

Critical Thinking

Systematic analysis of the decision.

Serendipity

A sudden and seemingly spontaneous insight that occurs after a long process of thinking. Serendipity is unpredictable and can be rare.

Intuition

Using your basic emotional feel about a decision.

Decision Rationale

Documenting the reason for a decision. This process can be helpful to make the decision as looking at a decision rationale often leads to a change of mind.
Overview: Decision Making Process
Type
Definition
A set of steps that can be used to make decisions.
Related Concepts

Decision Making

This is the complete list of articles we have written about decision making.
A/B Testing
Abilene Paradox
Abstract Concept
Analysis Paralysis
Analytic Reasoning
Assertions
Benefit Of Doubt
Boil The Frog
Choice Architecture
Cold Logic
Collective Intelligence
Consensus
Convergent Thinking
Counterfactual
Creativity
Critical Thinking
Decision Analysis
Decision Authority
Decision Balance
Decision Costs
Decision Fatigue
Decision Framing
Decision Mapping
Decision Modelling
Decision Quality
Decision Rationale
Decision Support
Decision Tree
Devil's Advocate
Disagree And Commit
Divergent Thinking
Emotional Intelligence
Failure Of Imagination
Fallacies
Generalization
Group Decisions
Groupthink
Heuristics
Ideation
Imagination
Inaction
Indecision
Introspection
Intuition
Keep It Simple
Logic
Maximax Criterion
Minimax Criterion
Motivated Reasoning
Non Decision
Normative Model
Objectivity
Opportunity Cost
Overthinking
Paradox Of Choice
Pareto Analysis
Predictive Analytics
Preserving Ambiguity
Prioritization
Reverse Brainstorming
Sanity Check
Satisficing
Serious Game
Strategic Dominance
Thought Experiment
Tradeoffs
Visual Analytics
Visual Thinking
More ...
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Consensus

A definition of consensus.

Decision Modelling

An overview of decision modelling.

Decision Making

A list of decision making techniques.

Abilene Paradox

The observation that groups may make collective decisions that are viewed as wrong or irrational by each individual member of the group.

Rational Thought

The difference between rational thought and logic.

Uncertainty

The common types of uncertainty in decision making and strategy.

Information Costs

A definition of information costs with examples.

Reverse Brainstorming

A definition of reverse brainstorming with examples.

Decision Fatigue

The definition of decision fatigue with examples.

Devils Advocate

Taking a position that you do not necessarily agree with for the purposes of argument.

Paradox Of Choice

The definition of paradox of choice with examples.

Sanity Check

An overview of sanity checks, a decision making and problem solving technique.

Preserving Ambiguity

Overview of preserving ambiguity.

Strategic Dominance

Strategic dominance is your best choice in a given situation.

Maximax Criterion

The definition of maximax with examples.

Indecision

The definition of indecision with examples.

Group Decisions

A list of group decision strategies and techniques.

Normative Decision Making

The definition of normative decision making with examples.

Non Decision

The definition of non-decision with examples.

Decision Examples

Examples of decisions made with different decision making approaches.
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