What is the Sure Thing Principle?

The sure thing principle is a decision making guideline that suggests there is no need to consider uncertainty in a decision that wouldn't impact the decision anyway. This is used to counter the common tendency to worry about uncertainties that are practically irrelevant to a particular choice. It is common to avoid choices that involve uncertainty or spend a great deal of effort considering probabilities. The sure thing principle is a basic sanity check that potentially simplifies decisions by dropping unnecessary considerations.

Example

An investor is considering buying a stock but she is worried about an upcoming election. There are two candidates running A and B. If A wins she will be happy and will buy the stock. If B wins she will be disappointed but would still like to own the stock. In such a scenario, the uncertainty of the election is obscuring the fact that the investor would like to purchase the stock, either way the election turns out.

Overview: Sure Thing Principle
Type	Decision Theory Decision Making Risk
Definition	The principle that uncertainties can be eliminated from decision making consideration if they would not impact the decision one way or another anyway.
Related Concepts	Abilene Paradox Strategic Dominance