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What is the Cone Of Uncertainty?

 , updated on July 10, 2023
The cone of uncertainty is a model of the uncertainty associated with projects whereby a project begins with a great deal of uncertainty and slowly becomes more certain, resulting in a cone shaped distribution.
Similar models are used to describe hurricanes although the cone is inverted, become more uncertain with time. In other words, you know where a hurricane will be in 5 minutes but it can predict its path with less certainty hours or days into the future.
Project uncertainty is reduced by research, prototypes, documenting requirements, making decisions and identifying risks. As a project progresses to completion it approaches zero uncertainty.
Overview: Cone Of Uncertainty
Type
Project Principle
Definition
Project uncertainty can be modeled with a cone shape whereby projects begin with a great deal of uncertainty and gradually become more certain.
Related Concepts
Project Risk
Project Management Principles
Risk Identification
Next read: Fudge Factor

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