|Overview: Cone Of Uncertainty|
Project uncertainty can be modeled with a cone shape whereby projects begin with a great deal of uncertainty and gradually become more certain.
What is the Cone Of Uncertainty?
John Spacey, updated on July 10, 2023
The cone of uncertainty is a model of the uncertainty associated with projects whereby a project begins with a great deal of uncertainty and slowly becomes more certain, resulting in a cone shaped distribution. Similar models are used to describe hurricanes although the cone is inverted, become more uncertain with time. In other words, you know where a hurricane will be in 5 minutes but it can predict its path with less certainty hours or days into the future. Project uncertainty is reduced by research, prototypes, documenting requirements, making decisions and identifying risks. As a project progresses to completion it approaches zero uncertainty.
Project ManagementThis is the complete list of articles we have written about project management.
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A list of common project risks. A list of basic project management techniques.
A definition of workaround with examples.
A list of project branding techniques.An overview of project stakeholder management with examples. A definition of action plan with examples.
The primary types of cost overrun.The definition of document control with examples.
A guide to project oversight.
A definition of design driven development with examples.A list of common project risks. A list of common project stakeholders.
A list of common business risks.
The difference between a risk and an issue.The four things that can be done about risk.
The definition of secondary risk with examples.
A guide to creating a risk register with an example.
A definition of risk perception with examples.The common types of implementation.
A reasonably complete guide to project risk management.
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