What is Self-Defeating Predictability?

Self-defeating predictability is when a historical pattern makes a prediction obvious to multiple observers causing them to take actions that prevent the prediction from coming true. Actions taken to avoid risks and benefit from opportunities can cause such risks and opportunities to become less probable. The following are hypothetical examples.

Markets

If a stock market historically goes up on December 15th, it makes sense for investors to buy on December 14th and sell on December 15th. If enough investors take this action, the market will be up on December 14th and down on December 15th. Generally speaking, any strong identifiable prediction in market prices causes that prediction to be less likely to materialize.

Voting

Voters who have heard in the media that their choice is predicted to win may be more likely to to stay at home.

Film

A highly anticipated film may generate inflated expectations that cause poor reviews.

Overview: Self-Defeating Predictability
Type	Economics Statistical Inference Predictive Analytics
Definition (1)	Something that doesn't happen because it was predictable.
Definition (2)	The tendency for a predictable event not to occur due to efforts to exploit opportunities or mitigate risk associated with the event.
Also Known As	Self-defeating Prophecy Self-defeating Probability Self-defeating Prediction
Related Concepts	Investing Predictive Analytics Logical Error